EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT "GROWTH CONTROL" IN DAVIS
By Dave Rosenberg
Yolo County Supervisor, District Four
When and why was growth control instituted in Davis?
Population growth in Davis began exploding in the 1950’s, 1960’s and early 1970’s -- at or exceeding 10% per year growth -- until a City Council election in the early 1970’s swept into office a "growth control" majority (Bob Black, Joan Poulos and Richard Holdstock) which began a dramatic reversal of the trend.
The chart below shows the average annual population growth rate for increments of time over the past 45 years, and the remarkable turn around in growth rates begun in the early 1970’s:
Period Average Annual Growth Rate
1950-1960 9.63%
1960-1965 10.61%
1965- 1970 9.75%
1970-1975 6.25%
1975-1980 2.85%
1980-1985 1.82%
1985-1990 2.93%
1990-1995 2.14%
How does the City control growth?
The guiding document is the City’s General Plan. The guiding mechanism is the Housing Allocation System. Simply put, you can’t build a house in a subdivision unless (1) the subdivision is approved, and (2) you get an "allocation" (the right to build). By controlling the number of housing unit allocations, the City Council controls growth.
What does the General Plan say about growth?
The General Plan currently governing Davis was adopted in 1987. I was the Mayor of Davis at the time. The General Plan (continuing the philosophy of former general plans) provides for limited growth "to meet internal needs of households whose work or study activities are or have been focused in Davis." The current General Plan covers the period 1987-2000.
What’s this figure of 75,000 all about -- is this the planned population of the City of Davis?
There’s a lot of mythology about the 75,000 figure in the General Plan. It is not the projected population of the City of Davis. The 1987 General Plan envisions a "city" population of 65,429 in the year 2010. That’s a cumulative average population increase of 1.87% over the 1987 city population of 43,566. The 75,000 figure is the projected Davis "planning area" population in 2010 (which is a 1.81% cumulative average population increase over the 1987 planning area population of 50,529). The "planning area" includes the City of Davis but also includes areas outside the city (and outside the direct jurisdiction of the City Council) such as El Macero, Willowbank and the like.
What has been the growth over the first nine years of the General Plan?
The General Plan did not establish a requirement that growth be a specific number of units or number of people every year, nor a constant rate. Over the first nine years of the 1987 General Plan, the number of housing units in the city has increased by a compounded average of 1.90% per year; city population has increased by a 2.38% average, compounded annually.
What is "frontloading"?
The 1987 General Plan only envisions about a dozen subdivisions over the life of the plan. Most have begun construction, and are phased to be constructed over many years. (For example, Mace Ranch was approved in 1988, but will not be completed until about 2008). To enable developers to pay for infrastructure demanded by the community (e.g. the complete buildout, immediately, of major subdivision roadways even though subdivision housing is just beginning construction), the General Plan permits "frontloading" of housing allocations. In other words, the developer receives some more allocations in early years to help pay for infrastructure. So, for example, a 600 unit, 6-year project might receive 100 allocation units per year without frontloading, but with frontloading the project might receive the following allocations over a 6-year period: 150, 125, 100, 100, 75, 50. The number of housing stays the same under either method; the timing of allocations varies.
Because of frontloading, to reach Davis’ projected 2010 population of 65,429 from the January 1, 1997 population of 53,423, Davis should now limit its compound growth rate to 1.57% per year. To reach the projected number of housing units envisioned by the General Plan will require a compound growth rate of 1.90% per year. That translates to an average of 476 housing units per year.
Does the General Plan work with the assumption of "population" or "housing units"?
Actually, both. While it is more interesting to talk about "population," it is more realistic to talk about "housing units." The City Council does not directly control population. A city cannot (and should not!) really tell people how many can live in a house or apartment, or how many children one may have. Obviously, one three-bedroom home may wind up housing one or two people, while the three-bedroom home next door might house five or six people. It varies!
The City of Davis can control the number of housing units, and to some limited extent, the number of rooms which might be built per unit. The 1987 General Plan projected an average household size of 2.370 persons. This was based on Department of Finance estimates at the time. The 65,429 population estimate was based upon the 2.370 person assumption! Since that time, the Department of Finance has revised its estimates and now assumes 2.476 persons per household (and increase of 0.106 persons per household).
The number of housing units built in Davis since 1987 is almost precisely what the General Plan envisioned. The population living in those housing units is slightly higher than envisioned in 1987.
Is the City of Davis on track with its 1987 General Plan growth population?
Yes. In fact, with remarkable accuracy. The 1987 General Plan envisions a 2010 city population of 65,429 people and 27,930 housing units. If all zoned units in Davis build out in the remaining 13 years of the plan (including the controversial Covell Center project), Davis’ 2010 population would be 64,538 living in 26,453 housing units. Without Covell Center, the 2010 population would be 62,878 living in 25,765 housing units.
Is Davis’ growth control policy subject to State law?
Yes. State general plan law requires each local jurisdiction to have land available and zoned to meet its "fair share" need for housing at all income levels. In our area, SACOG (the Sacramento Area Council of Governments) issues the "fair share" numbers. These numbers impose legal requirements which can be enforced in court. Additionally, state law requires general plan Housing Element Updates every five years, reflecting "fair share" requirements.
Does UCD growth affect Davis?
You bet! The 1987 General Plan was written based upon UCD’s LRDP (Long Range Development Plan) assumption of a 2005-06 student population of 26,000 at Davis. If this number is altered by the Regents, the pressure to grow (to accommodate students, faculty, staff and families) will increase. Historically, the major population driver for Davis has been UCD. The population of Davis, over the years, has traditionally been equal to about twice the enrollment at the university. In 1990, for example, UCD enrollment was 22,570 students and the city population was 46,322.
Is Growth control good for Davis?
Absolutely. Growth control has enabled Davis to retain small town qualities, enhance the downtown, preserve good Class I agricultural soil, farmland and habitat, avoid building new infrastructure (e.g. sewage plant), demand quality subdivisions and amenities (e.g. parks and greenbelts), and keep Davis a one general-high-school town. These are important goals which we must continue into the next century.
While Davis’ city population growth hovers around 2% annually, other local towns are exploding: Vacaville 3.1%, Roseville 5.3%, and Rocklin 6.8%.
What’s next?
The next great issue for Davis and Yolo County is urban limit lines -- a point beyond which cities will not grow. I strongly support this next step. But this will require a partnership between the County, the cities, the people, farmers and environmentalists before we can achieve it.
With this view to the future, I have proposed a "Yolo County Greenline Plan" which will be a partnership between the County and the cities to establish urban limit lines and preserve agricultural land. It is the land-use challenge of the 21st Century.